SERIC

Future Wood Flows Across the Green Triangle Region

Forestry is a significant and rapidly growing industry contributing around $778 Million annually to regional GDP and creating in excess of 8750 regional jobs.

The 2005 plantation inventory for the region indicates approximately 160,000 ha of Pine estate in a relatively concentrated area and approximately 140,000 ha of Blue Gum estate dispersed across the greater Green Triangle region.

With such a significant harvest coming on-stream in future years, plantation growers and the Green Triangle Regional Plantation Committee (GTRPC) were keen to proactively explore the impact of their industry on the regions transport infrastructure by predicting future raw wood flow volumes and potential truck movements on the regions roads.

Local Technical Excellence

As no commercial software or data was available to solve this particular problem, the GTRPC enlisted SERIC to create its own solution, gather the necessary data and develop modeling algorithms specific to the task.

SERIC established confidentiality agreements with thirteen major plantation growers and collated raw data on projected plantation harvest volumes. These data provide an accurate plantation database with average annual harvest volumes in five year time periods. SERIC then worked with the growers to identify probable haulage routes from plantation to first points of processing.

The Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to create a connected network model representing all regional roads potentially used by the forestry industry. This network contains over 500 'catch-points' where harvest volumes enter the network from plantations and 4500 linear segments representing roads that volumes will travel on.

Overall there are approximately 38,000 records per five year period and haulage route scenario modeled. Volume and route information is fed into the network model and GIS processing algorithms convert the raw data into summary tables representing accumulated flows on each road segment. As wood movements regularly criss-cross the region, the absolute tonnages are accumulated on each segment so that wood traveling in opposite directions along a road are summed to give a total figure.

The Summary tables of accumulated volumes can then be represented on a map in a variety of formats for visualisation and further interpretation.

The example shown below is a summary map comparing three different future haulage route scenarios with the current situation. Visualisation of the resultant data in this form clearly shows the potential impact of different scenarios on key towns across the region.

Testing Options and Alternatives

Flexibility built into SERIC's network model allows us to generate various alternative transport scenarios and options. By altering the haulage route data model we are able to analyse the impact of diverting traffic from the Nelson Road to the Princes Highway, the impact that a new Border Road may have on Casterton, or the future volume of wood available for a re-established rail head at Penola. The outcomes of these various scenarios are an invaluable contribution to Local and State Government transportat planning.

The study has shown that in the period 2009-2014, the Blue Gum harvest will accelerate rapidly with predictions of approximately an additional 3.7 million tonnes transported annually to the Port of Portland. As well as a major boost to economic development this will clearly have a significant effect on traffic, infrastructure, and communities adjacent to the principle timber roads, particularly in Portland where several main roads merge approaching the Port area. These issues will require careful thought and strategic planning to minimise community impacts of additional transport movements.

" The information generated by SERIC is very useful to the Shire for future strategic planning, particularly in relation to transport and infrastructure issues. "    Jennifer Tod, CEO, Glenelg Shire Council

Project Collaboration

As well as garnering the cooperation of thirteen major forestry companies the Woodflow project has brought together a number of SERIC partners with a shared interest in the regional outcomes the project has produced to date.

Products derived from the Woodflow study have since been utilised by other SERIC partners including Local and State Government agencies across the region. Local Governments and consultants have used the outcomes to assist local road planning. VicRoads has used derived data to feed into their SW Regional Transport Plan. The Limestone Coast Regional Development Board has used the outcomes to support regional road funding bids.

The accurate plantation data collected can be used to update Land Use Mapping by both the Department of Environment and Heritage (SA) and Department of Sustainability and Environment (VIC). SERIC has also held discussions with other agencies who have statutory requirements to collect plantation data, such as the Victorian CFA and the Federal Bureau of Rural Sciences who maintain the National Plantation Inventory.

Value to the Forestry Industry

The full value of the Woodflow project is difficult to measure as the benefits to a number of parties are long term and ongoing. One of the major benefits to the GTRPC is the ability to provide accurate information and forward predictions for other organisations to utilise, thus increasing the profile of industry cooperation across the region.

" The Woodflow project has been beneficial in quantifying future transport demands across the Green Triangle Region. The project also has flow on effects for assisting workforce planning, skills training and education "    John Kellas, EO, Green Triangle Regional Plantation Committee

A catalyst for the Woodflow project was the 2004 Timber Value Adding Study, published by the Limestone Coast Regional Development Board, for which SERIC also provided analytical support and mapping services.

The even earlier TIRES transportation study in 1999 focused only on the softwood industry in Victoria, using paper based methodologies and manual calculations. SERIC has significantly improved results over previous studies with advanced GIS modeling providing far greater accuracy as well as repeatability and extendibility to other industries.

Wood Flow Review 2008

In 2008, SERIC was commissioned by the Green Triangle Regional Plantation Committee (GTRPC) to undertake a review of the 2004-05, Wood Flow Project. This high level analysis of the Green Triangle plantation estate had provided enormously important information to forest companies, local government and state transport agencies on the potential impacts of forestry growth for infrastructure, work force needs and processing capacity. The review utilized and refined the methodology that was developed in the 2004-05  project to update the predicted yields and time frames from all regional forestry companies, with the object of providing an accurate assessment of timber volumes moving through the region until the year 2018.

As has been highlighted earlier, the capacity of SERIC to develop solutions to processing massive amounts of data for regional partners, and represent that data in a form that can be taken up by planners in corporate forestry, State and local government agencies is no better represented than in this project.  The 2008 Revision of the Future Wood Flow Project provided a significant basis for the Green Triangle Freight Action Plan which was developed by the Victorian and South Australian governments in 2009 and submitted to the Australian government for funding under the Regional Infrastructure Program

Ongoing Regional Benefits

The model created by SERIC has the capacity to integrate other regional transport activity such as movement of processed wood products or other industries such as dairying, livestock or grain. With a long term objective of building up a total transport perspective for the region, SERIC is making a valuable contribution to better understanding the total transport requirements of the region.

" The Limestone Coast economy is dynamic and our infrastructure needs are constantly evolving to meet the demands of industry and the community. Through SERIC we now have the tools to better analyse situations and make more informed decisions. "    Grant King, CEO, Limestone Coast Regional Development Board